MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

Forecast for the Week 

Although economic news this week is rather light, some key reports will be released…and they may impact the markets and home loan rates:

  • Economic news doesn’t begin until Wednesday with data on New Home Sales. Last week, there was some hope that the housing markets were bottoming after a solid Housing Starts report, but those hopes were quickly dashed after the weak Existing Home Sales numbers. So, the markets will be looking to see what this week reveals about the housing market.
  • Thursday we’ll see more housing news in the form of Pending Home Sales.
  • Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be delivered as usual on Thursday and comes after a big rise in claims last week, which was due in part to seasonal abnormalities.
  • Durable Orders will also be reported on Thursday.
  • The government will release the first reading on second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Friday and the report will be critical as to the outlook for the U.S. economy.
  • Finally, Consumer Sentiment for July will be released on Friday as well.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates continue to improve. I’ll be watching closely to see what happens this week.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jul 20, 2012)
Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View… 

One Day = 1,440 Minutes

By Jason Womack, Author. Productivity Coach. http://amzn.to/bestbetter

Schedule “think” time on your calendar.

Start with blocks of 15 minutes. I recommend you schedule five of these sessions over the next week. Consider starting with just one a day.

There are two goals for this activity:

  • Rarely do you get enough time to focus on one thing while you’re at work. To get better at what you do, you MUST practice focusing. I want you to be able to hold your concentration on one topic, idea or problem for extended periods of time. During these focus sessions, you may come up with a new or different solution just because you had “time to think.”
  • If you schedule just one 15-minute block of think time a day, you’ll be able to do it. (I’ve seen too many people try to block out an hour or two, only to have “something come up” that pulls them out for half or even all of that time.) 15 minutes…it’s short enough to find, and long enough to matter!

Economic Calendar for the Week of July 23 – July 27

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Wed. July 25
10:00
New Home Sales
Jun
NA
369K
Moderate
Thu. July 26
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
7/21
NA
NA
Moderate
Thu. July 26
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Jun
NA
1.3%
Moderate
Thu. July 26
10:00
Pending Home Sales
Jun
NA
5.9%
Moderate
Fri. July 27
08:30
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q2
NA
1.9%
Moderate
Fri. July 27
08:30
Chain Deflator
Q2
NA
2.0%
Moderate
Fri. July 27
08:30
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Jul
NA
72.0
Moderate
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