MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

Forecast for the Week 

This is a key week for economic data, since the ADP Employment Report and the Labor Department’s monthly Jobs Report will be released. But those are just two of the influential reports due out this week:

  • The week’s calendar is packed and the data begins to be disseminated on Tuesday with Personal Income and Spending.
  • In addition, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure will be released on Tuesday. Remember: This is the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, so the markets will be watching it closely.
  • The Case/Shiller Home Price Index will also be released on Tuesday.
  • The hits keep coming on Tuesday with the Chicago Manufacturing Index and Consumer Confidence report.
  • On Wednesday, the ADP Employment Report will be delivered along with the ISM Manufacturing Index.
  • Thursday’s weekly Initial Jobless Claims report will set up for Friday’s important jobs data.
  • Last, but not least, will be Friday’s closely watched monthly Jobs Report, which includes Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate.

In addition, the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is this week, and the statement that will be released on Wednesday could move the markets.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates continue to reach record best levels, though they did falter in the latter part of the week. I’ll continue to monitor this situation closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jul 27, 2012)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View… 

Don’t Worry…Tweet Happy

Last week, Greek Olympian Voula Papachristou was removed from her country’s Olympic team. Why? Because she tweeted a racial joke using her personal Twitter account. Papachristou apologized, but the damage had been done. The Greek Olympic Committee stated that Papachristou was “placed outside the Olympic team for statements contrary to the values and ideas of the Olympic movement.”

That’s not the first time an offensive tweet has ended badly for a person or business.

Remember the Motor City tweet by Chrysler last year? An employee at Chrysler’s social media agency (mistakenly) tweeted a disparaging remark about drivers in Detroit. The problem? Chrysler had just spent $9 million on a Super Bowl ad as well as an “Imported from Detroit” advertising campaign that promoted Detroit and its people. In the end, the employee lost his job…and the social media agency lost its contract with Chrysler, which means the agency lost several million dollars—all because of a tweet.

While the stakes may not be that high for most people, the fact remains that an offensive tweet can be devastating…and, sometimes, damage cannot be undone.

So how can you avoid such a problem in the first place? Simple. Just follow the old adage: If you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all.

Admittedly, that can seem a little restricting. But the idea behind it is to tweet the positive. That advice isn’t new in light of the Greek Olympian or Chrysler examples. In fact, an article on Tech N’ Marketing back in 2009 offered similar advice to business people who were navigating what to say and what not to say on Twitter. The article stated: “Just like you would not share extreme political views, sexist, or offensive views of any kind at an office event, so to on Twitter.”

In other words, if you wouldn’t say it out loud during a business event or meeting, you should think twice about tweeting or retweeting. Just because you read a joke or have a moment of frustration, doesn’t mean you should share it. After all, you may end up offending (and turning away) clients and business associates.

So, instead, tweet about relevant news, answer questions, share tips, and so on. Keep your tweets positive…and Twitter will be a positive experience for you and your business.

For more tips on using Twitter for business, check out the Ultimate Guide to Twitter Marketing, which features links to numerous topics and articles.

Economic Calendar for the Week of July 30 – August 03

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Tue. July 31
08:30
Personal Income
Jun
0.4%
0.2%
Moderate
Tue. July 31
08:30
Personal Spending
Jun
0.1%
0.0%
Moderate
Tue. July 31
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Jun
0.1%
0.1%
HIGH
Tue. July 31
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Jun
NA
1.8%
HIGH
Tue. July 31
08:30
Employment Cost Index (ECI)
Q2
0.5%
0.4%
HIGH
Tue. July 31
09:45
Chicago PMI
Jul
52.5
52.9
HIGH
Tue. July 31
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Jul
61.0
62.0
Moderate
Wed. August 01
08:15
ADP National Employment Report
Jul
125K
179K
HIGH
Wed. August 01
10:00
ISM Index
Jul
49.9
49.7
HIGH
Wed. August 01
02:15
FOMC Meeting
Jul
NA
NA
HIGH
Thu. August 02
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
7/28
365K
353K
Moderate
Fri. August 03
08:30
Non-farm Payrolls
Jul
100K
80K
HIGH
Fri. August 03
08:30
Unemployment Rate
Jul
8.2%
8.2%
HIGH
Fri. August 03
08:30
Hourly Earnings
Jul
0.2%
0.3%
HIGH
Fri. August 03
08:30
Average Work Week
Jul
34.5
34.5
HIGH
Fri. August 03
10:00
ISM Services Index
Jul
52.2
52.1
Moderate
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.
Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.
Equal Housing Lender

Tell me what you think

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s