MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

Forecast for the Week 

The markets will have a lot to chew on this week, especially given the packed economic calendar.

  • On Tuesday, we will be able to gauge how the consumer is holding up when Retail Sales are released.
  • On the inflation front, the Producer Price Index (or wholesale inflation) will also be delivered on Tuesday, while the Consumer Price Index will be released on Wednesday.
  • Over in the manufacturing sector, the Empire State Index will be reported on Wednesday with the Philly Fed Index set to be released on Thursday.
  • Housing Starts and Building Permits will be closely watched when the data is reported on Thursday.
  • Also on Thursday, we’ll get another read on weekly Initial Jobless Claims.
  • Last but not least, Consumer Sentiment will be reported on Friday.

In addition, Stock movements will be watched closely. If Stocks continue to rise, it could keep pushing the Bond markets lower–and, in turn, push home loan rates higher.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further a red candle means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green candle means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates continued to move from their record levels, but still remain near historic bests. I’ll continue to monitor their movement closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Aug 10, 2012)
Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View… 

How to Save on Back-to-School Electronics

Follow these six tips to cut costs on computers, phones and other devices for students.

By Cameron Huddleston, Kiplinger.com

Among the most-expensive items on many families’ back-to-school shopping lists are electronics, such as computers, tablets, MP3 players and smart phones. According to a National Retail Federation survey, families are expected to spend about $218, on average, on these items during the back-to-school shopping season this year.
That might cover the cost of smaller items, such as phones, but families will have to shell out more if they want to buy laptop computers or certain tablets.
However, there are ways to keep the cost of electronics under control. Jon Rettinger, president of gadget review site TechnoBuffalo, offers these tips:
Shop online. Shopping online makes it easy to compare prices from several retailers. And there are plenty of sites that do the bargain hunting for you by scouring the Web for the best deals. Our favorite deal site, dealnews.com, has a page devoted to the best computer deals. Other sites that feature deals on computers and other tech items include MacMall.com (Apple products), Offers.com, Shopping.com and Shopzilla.com.
Monitor daily deals. You can find deeply discounted computers and other items on daily deal sites that specialize in tech products, such as RedTag.com and Woot.com. These sites feature just one product a day, but both offer e-mail alerts so that you don’t have to monitor the sites each day.
Set up price alerts. If you want to buy a particular tech product (not just the lowest-price computer, for example), sign up for price alerts so that you can receive an e-mail when the price on that product changes. There are a number of price alert sites that track electronics, such as Gazaro, PriceSpider and PricePinx.
Buy refurbished. You can save a lot by purchasing refurbished tech items, which are used but restored to like-new condition and usually have a one-year warranty. Among the sites where your can find refurbished computers, tablets and other products are Apple.com, BestBuy.com, CompUSA.com, Dell.com, Newegg.com and Walmart.com.
Take advantage of trade-in programs. One way to pay less for a new tech item is to trade in a used item. A number of retailers, including Best Buy, Circuit City and Radio Shack, have trade-in programs that offer cash, a gift card or credit for the value of a used item that can be applied toward the purchase of a new item.
Avoid extras. Just say no to tech support and retailers’ extended warranties, Rettinger says. Your credit card might offer an extended warranty (see How Credit Cards’ Extended Warranty Coverage Stacks Up). Or Rettinger suggests buying extended warranty coverage through SquareTrade.com, which offers warranties 40% to 60% cheaper than retailers’ warranties. Another extra that he says to avoid is Microsoft Office Home & Student edition ($120) because you can use Google Docs for free.
Reprinted with permission. All Contents ©2012 The Kiplinger Washington Editors. Kiplinger.com.

Economic Calendar for the Week of August 13 – August 17

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Tue. August 14
08:30
Retail Sales
Jul
NA
-0.5%
HIGH
Tue. August 14
08:30
Retail Sales ex-auto
Jul
NA
-0.4%
HIGH
Tue. August 14
08:30
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Jul
NA
0.1%
Moderate
Tue. August 14
08:30
Core Producer Price Index (PPI)
Jul
NA
0.2%
Moderate
Wed. August 15
08:30
Empire State Index
Aug
NA
7.4
Moderate
Wed. August 15
08:30
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Jul
NA
0.2%
HIGH
Wed. August 15
08:30
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Jul
NA
0.0%
HIGH
Thu. August 16
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
8/11
NA
NA
Moderate
Thu. August 16
08:30
Housing Starts
Jul
NA
760K
Moderate
Thu. August 16
08:30
Building Permits
Jul
NA
755K
Moderate
Thu. August 16
10:00
Philadelphia Fed Index
Aug
NA
-12.9
HIGH
Fri. August 17
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Aug
NA
72.3
Moderate
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.
Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.
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