MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

Forecast for the Week 

The economic calendar heats up this week with a slew of data that covers a broad spectrum of the U.S. economy.

  • The week’s data begins on Monday with readings on Personal Income, Personal Spending and the inflation-measuring Core Personal Consumption Expendituredata, the latter being especially important to monitor.
  • Tuesday’s data includes Consumer Confidence and the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index.
  • The ADP Employment numbers are due out on Wednesday along with the Employment Cost Index, which measures the cost of labor for businesses.
  • Manufacturing data from the Chicago PMI and the ISM Indexwill be disseminated on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
  • Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and worker Productivitywill be released on Thursday.
  • This brings us to the closely watched and all-important monthly government jobs report on Friday, which features Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate for October.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates stabilized last week from their recent worsening-trend, but they still remain near record best levels. I’’ll continue to monitor them closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Oct 26, 2012)
Japanese Candlestick Chart
The Mortgage Market Guide View… 

Plan for 2013… And Save

The U.S. Postal Service recently announced some changes that will take effect in 2013.

On the one hand, the cost to mail a single-piece letter will increase by just one cent. On the other hand, the Postal Service will introduce a new way to save in 2013 with Global Forever Stamps.

The information below can help you plan for your postal expenses and figure out how you can save!

Postal Prices in 2013

Beginning January 27, 2013, the following prices will go into effect:

Letters (1oz.) — 1-cent increase to 46 cents
Letters additional ounces  —unchanged at 20 cents
Postcards — 1-cent increase to 33 cents

Remember, the Postal Service receives no tax dollars for operating expenses and relies on the sale of postage, products and services to fund its operations.

Save with Global and U.S. Forever Stamps

The U.S. Postal Service will introduce a new Global Forever Stamp in 2013. The new stamp will allow customers to mail letters anywhere in the world for one set price of $1.10. In addition to the Global Forever Stamp, the Postal Service already offers Forever Stamps for mailing within the U.S.

If you purchase Forever Stamps prior to the one-cent increase, you can still use them even after the price change. As the Postal Service likes to say: Forever really means forever.

So consider purchasing Forever Stamps now before the price increase. Forever Stamps are widely available through Post Offices, consignment locations, automated postage centers, and The Postal Store®.

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of October 29 – November 02

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. October 29
08:30
Personal Income
Sept
0.6%
0.1%
Moderate
Mon. October 29
08:30
Personal Spending
Sept
0.4%
0.5%
Moderate
Mon. October 29
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Sept
0.1%
0.1%
HIGH
Mon. October 29
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
YOY
NA
1.6%
HIGH
Tue. October 30
09:00
Auto Sales
Aug
1.7%
1.2%
Moderate
Tue. October 30
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Oct
72.5
70.3
Moderate
Wed. October 31
08:15
ADP National Employment Report
Oct
140K
162K
HIGH
Wed. October 31
08:30
Employment Cost Index (ECI)
Q3
0.5%
0.5%
HIGH
Wed. October 31
09:45
Chicago PMI
Oct
50.4
49.7
HIGH
Thu. November 01
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
10/27
375K
369K
Moderate
Thu. November 01
08:30
Productivity
Q3
1.6%
2.2%
Moderate
Thu. November 01
10:00
ISM Index
Oct
51.0
51.5
HIGH
Fri. November 02
08:30
Non-farm Payrolls
Oct
125K
114K
HIGH
Fri. November 02
08:30
Unemployment Rate
Oct
7.9%
7.8%
HIGH
Fri. November 02
08:30
Hourly Earnings
Oct
0.2%
0.3%
HIGH
Fri. November 02
08:30
Average Work Week
Oct
34.5
34.5
HIGH
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

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