MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG Weekly

Forecast for the Week 

Manufacturing news kicks off the week, ahead of Friday’s all-important Jobs Report for November.

  • The closely watched ISM Manufacturing Index will be released first thing Monday, kicking off a week filled with important economic data.
  • Productivity and the ISM Services Index will be reported on Wednesday.
  • Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be delivered on Thursday after several weeks of heightened claims due to Superstorm Sandy.
  • Friday brings the all-important government Jobs Report, which includes Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate. Consumer Sentiment will also be released on Friday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving – and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further – a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, continued uncertainty here regarding the Fiscal Cliff and in Europe regarding the debt crisis benefitted Bonds and home loan rates. I’ll be watching closely to see what happens next.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Nov 30, 2012)

Japanese Candlestick Chart
The Mortgage Market Guide View… 

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Economic Calendar for the Week of December 03 – December 07

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. December 03
10:00
ISM Index
Nov
NA
51.7
HIGH
Wed. December 05
08:15
ADP National Employment Report
Nov
NA
158K
HIGH
Wed. December 05
08:30
Productivity
Q3
NA
1.9%
Moderate
Wed. December 05
10:00
ISM Services Index
Nov
NA
54.2
Moderate
Thu. December 06
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
12/1
NA
NA
Moderate
Fri. December 07
08:30
Average Work Week
Nov
34.4
34.4
HIGH
Fri. December 07
08:30
Hourly Earnings
Nov
NA
0.0%
HIGH
Fri. December 07
08:30
Unemployment Rate
Nov
NA
7.9%
HIGH
Fri. December 07
08:30
Non-farm Payrolls
Nov
NA
171K
HIGH
Fri. December 07
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Dec
82.4
82.7
Moderate

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