MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG Weekly / Vantage Production.blueForecast for the Week

The debt ceiling debate, budget fight, and the Jobs Report for September are three key items to look for this week.

  • Economic data kicks off on Monday with manufacturing numbers from the Chicago PMI report, followed by national manufacturing data from the ISM Index on Tuesday.
  • Wednesday will bring the first leg of the week’s jobs data with the ADP National Employment Report.
  • As usual, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday. Claims have averaged near 300,000 the past three weeks.
  • ISM Services Index, a national non-manufacturing index, will also be released on Thursday.
  • That leads us to Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate, which will be closely dissected by both Wall Street and the Federal Reserve.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates improved last week due to the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling and possible government shutdown. I will be watching these stories closely as they continue to unfold.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday September 27, 2013)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Productivity Points
Guilt-Free Naptimes at Work?

The health benefits of a good night’s sleep, optimally between 6.5 and 7.5 hours a night, are myriad and well known: hormonal rebalancing, cell repair, improved heart function, better memory, clearer thinking. Restful sleep helps our bodies sort through a rough day and prepare for the joys and challenges of the following day.

As bad as poor sleep is for your health, the costs at work aren’t what you might expect. According to one study by the Society for Neuroscience in Washington D.C., “The brain of the sleep-deprived individual is working normally sometimes, but intermittently suffers from something akin to power failure.”

People who only got four hours of sleep could actually perform the same task with the same amount of accuracy as someone with 8-hours of sleep.. that is, until the task had to be repeated…because the area most affected by lack of sleep is when trying to regain focus. Where a rested person’s brain can compensate for a loss of focus, a sleep-deprived person can’t refocus with similar ability.

Sleep experts have discovered regular daytime napping increases your alertness, memory, creativity, perception, stamina, motor skills, and accuracy. It also reduces stress and lowers risk of heart attack. A quick 20-minute nap for men, and up to 40 minutes for women, is all you will need to experience these benefits for yourself.

Taking regular naps–even if only in the car during part of your lunch break–is a great way to increase productivity and get more enjoyment out of your work and life. And it’s definitely not something to feel guilty about.

Feel free to pass these helpful tips along to your clients and colleagues!

Economic Calendar for the Week of September 30 – October 04

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. September 30
09:45
Chicago PMI
Sep
NA
NA
HIGH
Tue. October 01
10:00
ISM Index
Sep
NA
NA
HIGH
Wed. October 02
08:15
ADP National Employment Report
Sep
NA
176K
HIGH
Thu. October 03
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
9/28
NA
305K
Moderate
Thu. October 03
10:00
ISM Services Index
Sep
NA
58.6
Moderate
Fri. October 04
08:30
Non-farm Payrolls
Sep
NA
169K
HIGH
Fri. October 04
08:30
Unemployment Rate
Sep
NA
7.5%
HIGH
Fri. October 04
08:30
Average Work Week
Sep
NA
0.2%
HIGH
Fri. October 04
08:30
Hourly Earnings
Sep
NA
34.5
HIGH

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