MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG Weekly / Vantage Production.blueForecast for the Week

This week’s economic calendar is packed with a number of reports that will give investors a broad look at the U.S. economy.

  • Right out of the gate on Monday, Pending Home Sales will be released. This will be followed by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday.
  • Also on Tuesday, look for Retail Sales for September and Consumer Confidence for October.
  • A double dose of inflation news begins Tuesday with the wholesale-measuring Producer Price Index. The Consumer Price Index follows on Wednesday.
  • Wednesday also brings the ADP Employment Report, followed by Weekly Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday.
  • Ending the week, manufacturing data from the Chicago PMI and the ISM Index will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

In addition, the next regularly scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is Tuesday and Wednesday, with the Policy Statement set to be released Wednesday. Investors will be looking for any mention of when the Fed may taper its Bond purchases, and this news could move the markets.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds improved after the weaker than expected Jobs Report for September, helping keep home loan rates attractive. With a potential volatile week ahead due to the Fed meeting and heavy economic report calendar, I’ll be watching the news closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday October 25, 2013)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Smart Success
5 Secrets to Creating Better “Luck”

“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” Seneca

Richard Wiseman, psychologist and author of The Luck Factor, has spent years studying serendipity–also known as luck.

In one experiment, Dr. Wiseman asked subjects, “Are you a lucky person?” Yes or no.

Later on, he had each subject leaf through a newspaper to count the total number of photos inside and report their answer. Unbeknownst to the subjects, however, on the second page was a notice saying: “Stop counting–there are 43 photos in this newspaper.”

The result? Subjects who had answered “yes” to the luck question tended to see the notice, stop counting, and report the correct answer. Those who answered “no” tended to either miss the clue completely or dismiss it as a trick, continuing to count.

Here is where Wiseman discovered a key principle of success: People who consider themselves lucky are simply more open to already existing opportunity.

Here are five more success principles for creating luck in your life:

Opportunity is where you look. Seeing opportunity is less about “right place, right time” than it is about keeping your eyes open. If you don’t expect opportunity everywhere, you don’t look for it, and never see it coming–or going.

Try hard…but not too hard. While we all tend to associate unflinching determination with high-achievers, staying loose–even straying off course occasionally–attunes you to see more opportunities than does rigid focus.

Set the goals, not the road. Opportunity favors a relaxed approach. Once you’ve clarified the outcome you want, be open to the countless paths to its achievement.

What failure? Fear of making a mistake is a crippling habit. Flip your fear, and learn to see failure as a process of arrival–a learning opportunity in and of itself.

Try something new much more often. Playing it safe all the time is a recipe for regrets. The serendipitous tend to be fearless about discovery–even if it’s not the outcome they want to hear. So, instead of wondering what could have been, go and find out!

Let your luck rub off on somebody! Feel free to pass these tips along to your team, clients, and colleagues.

Economic Calendar for the Week of October 28 – November 01

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. October 28
10:00
Pending Home Sales
Sept
NA
-1.6%
Moderate
Tue. October 29
08:30
Retail Sales
Sept
-0.1%
0.2%
HIGH
Tue. October 29
08:30
Retail Sales ex-auto
Sept
0.2%
0.1%
HIGH
Tue. October 29
08:30
Core Producer Price Index (PPI)
Sept
0.1%
0.0%
Moderate
Tue. October 29
08:30
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Sept
0.2%
0.3%
Moderate
Tue. October 29
09:00
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Aug
NA
12.0%
Moderate
Tue. October 29
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Oct
NA
79.7
Moderate
Wed. October 30
08:15
ADP National Employment Report
Oct
NA
166K
Moderate
Wed. October 30
08:30
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Sept
0.1%
0.1%
HIGH
Wed. October 30
08:30
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Sept
0.1%
0.1%
HIGH
Wed. October 30
02:00
FOMC Meeting
Oct
NA
0.25%
HIGH
Thu. October 31
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
10/26
NA
NA
Moderate
Thu. October 31
09:45
Chicago PMI
Oct
NA
55.7
HIGH
Fri. November 01
10:00
ISM Index
Oct
NA
56.2
HIGH

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

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