MMG WEEKLY: WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG Weekly / Vantage Production.blueForecast for the Week

The holiday-shortened week will see just a few economic reports.

  • On Monday, Personal Income and Spending will be released along with the inflation-reading Personal Consumption Expenditure data. Consumer Sentiment will also be reported.
  • On Tuesday, Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales will be delivered.
  • As usual, Thursday brings Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and comes after last week’s big spike in claims to 379,000, which was the highest level since March.

The Bond markets will close early on Tuesday, Christmas Eve, at 2:00 p.m. ET, with Stock markets closing at 1:00 p.m. ET. All markets will be closed on Wednesday in observance of Christmas.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds worsened after the Fed announced that it will begin tapering its Bond purchase program. However, home loan rates remain at attractive levels and I will continue to monitor this closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday December 20, 2013)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Readers for Leaders
Top 5 Business Books of 2013

This year’s Amazon Best Sellers in Business were a cross-section of great ideas from every corner of the working world, running the gamut from sports leadership, to marketing, to the changing business climates of today. If you’re in business to stay in business, take a tip from the top five books (and explore the other 15 on this great list) and get inspired for 2014.

#5. Contagious: Why Things Catch On. Wharton marketing professor Jonah Berger has spent the last decade answering the question, “What makes things popular?” Most people think advertising. Not so, according to Berger, it’s word of mouth. The trick is how to boost awareness without coming off as self-serving. Whether you need to spark something viral with a product, a person, or an idea, look no further than Contagious.

#4. Eleven Rings: The Soul of Success. Head coach of the Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers, Phil Jackson has won more championships than any coach in the history of professional sports. More importantly, according to Eleven Rings, he coached from a place of deep values. Being tagged as the “Zen master” coach, he developed a new approach to leadership based on freedom, authenticity, and selfless teamwork. Unique in the ultra-competitive world of professional sports, this method is equally needed in the business world today.

#3. Playing to Win: How Strategy Really Works. A.G. Lafley, CEO of Procter & Gamble, co-authors with strategic adviser Roger L. Martin to outline the strategy P&G used to double sales, quadruple profits, and increase market value by more than $100 billion during Lafley’s tenure between 2000-2009. Leaders in any organization will learn the essential elements for business success: where to play and how to win, while implementing five essential strategic choices. The ideas in this book can help you turn a brand around or make a great one even better.

#2. Give and Take: A Revolutionary Approach to Success. Wharton’s youngest tenured professor, Adam Grant, Ph.D., reveals his pioneering research on how focus on the traditional “indicators” of success like passion, hard work, talent, and luck don’t play the role we once thought. Grant shows how three interaction styles in the office have a surprising impact on success. Praised by bestselling authors such as Dan Pink, Robert Cialdini, Seth Godin, and more, Give and Take promises an approach to success that could transform any organization.

#1. Lean In: Women, Work, and the Will to Lead. Sheryl Sandberg, CEO of Facebook, is ranked on Fortune’s list of the 50 Most Powerful Women in Business and Time’s 100 Most Influential People in the World. Lean In expands on her now famous TEDTalk (viewed over 2 million times) where she described how women unintentionally hold themselves back, and offers solutions to empower women to achieve their full potential. Called an “inspiring call to action and a blueprint for individual growth,” Lean In is an important conversation-changer for women in business.

Feel free to pass these tips along to your team, clients, and colleagues.

Economic Calendar for the Week of December 23 – December 27

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. December 23
08:30
Personal Income
Nov
NA
 
-0.1%
Moderate
Mon. December 23
08:30
Personal Spending
Nov
NA
 
0.3%
Moderate
Mon. December 23
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Nov
NA
 
0.1%
HIGH
Mon. December 23
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
YOY
NA
 
1.1%
HIGH
Mon. December 23
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Dec
NA
 
82.5
Moderate
Tue. December 24
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Nov
NA
 
-1.6%
Moderate
Tue. December 24
10:00
New Home Sales
Nov
NA
 
444K
Moderate
Thu. December 26
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
12/21
NA
 
379K
Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

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