MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG Weekly / Vantage Production.blueForecast for the Week

Job market data will be front and center during the first full week of January.

  • The week kicks off with the ISM Services Index on Monday.
  • Wednesday will bring the first leg of the week’s jobs data with the ADP National Employment Report.
  • As usual, Thursday brings Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which have been jumping around due to the holiday seasonal job market.
  • That leads us to Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate, which will be closely dissected by both Wall Street and the Federal Reserve.

In addition, the minutes from the Fed’s December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will be released Wednesday and these always have the potential to move the markets.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds have been caught in a tight trading range. Home loan rates remain attractive compared to historical levels and I’ll be monitoring them closely
.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday January 03, 2014)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Getting Up Front
Anxiety Management for Public Speakers

Speaking with clients, referral partners, or prospects one-to-one is a skill most people in business have already mastered. But when it comes to public speaking, confidence is not as easy to come by.

And it’s easy to be a little envious of those who have the ability, since the benefits of being able to deliver a message one-to-many are numerous: overcoming fear, boosting self-esteem, honing critical-thinking and analysis skills, improving communication and networking opportunities, expanding your personal brand, getting more business, and impressing your audience… and your boss, if you have one.

You may not be more afraid of public speaking than death but that doesn’t mean you won’t get a serious case of the jitters. The standard prescription used is to find ways to force yourself to relax and calm down before giving your presentation. Except, this isn’t the most effective way to channel that nervous energy.

New Harvard Business School research shows getting excited reduces performance anxiety better than trying to calm down. “Anxiety is incredibly pervasive,” says Alison Wood Brooks, PhD., author of the study. “People have a very strong intuition that trying to calm down is the best way to cope with their anxiety, but that can be very difficult and ineffective. When people feel anxious and try to calm down, they are thinking about all the things that could go badly. When they are excited, they are thinking about how things could go well.”

Because both anxiety and excitement are highly charged emotional states, it’s easier to convince yourself that your anxiety is actually excitement, rather than try to convince yourself you’re not anxious at all. Brooks says, “When you feel anxious, you’re ruminating too much and focusing on potential threats. In those circumstances, people should try to focus on the potential opportunities. It really does pay to be positive, and people should say they are excited…even if they don’t believe it at first.”

So, what’s the best strategy? Dr. Brooks recommends that prior to any presentation you should tell yourself you’re excited and forget about trying to calm down. In fact, simply saying “I’m excited!” out loud will naturally increase your feelings of excitement and get you pumped about the rewards of public speaking that are about to be yours!

Give this helpful tip a try on your next public talk, and feel free to pass these tips along to your team, clients, and colleagues.

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 06 – January 10

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. January 06
10:00
ISM Services Index
Dec
53.0
53.9
Moderate
Wed. January 08
08:15
ADP National Employment Report
Dec
185K
215K
HIGH
Wed. January 08
02:00
FOMC Minutes
12/18
NA
NA
HIGH
Thu. January 09
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
1/4
340K
339K
Moderate
Fri. January 10
08:30
Non-farm Payrolls
Dec
199K
203K
HIGH
Fri. January 10
08:30
Unemployment Rate
Dec
7.1%
7.0%
HIGH
Fri. January 10
08:30
Average Work Week
Dec
34.5
34.5
HIGH
Fri. January 10
08:30
Hourly Earnings
Dec
0.2%
0.2%
HIGH

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

Equal Housing Lender

Tell me what you think

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s