MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG Weekly / Vantage Production.blueForecast for the Week

This week’s economic reports will touch on a large sector of the economy, with several key reports to note.

  • Economic data kicks off on Monday with Pending Home Sales for March, followed by the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for February on Tuesday.
  • Tuesday also features Consumer Confidence for April.
  • In the manufacturing sector, look for Chicago PMI on Wednesday and the ISM Index
    on Thursday.
  • Also on Wednesday, the first reading of Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter of 2014 will be released.
  • Thursday brings Personal Income, Personal Spending and Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will also be delivered as usual.
  • That leads us to Friday when one of the most closely-watched economic reports will be released—the Jobs Report for April, which features Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate.

In addition, the Fed’s next regularly-scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee begins on Tuesday, with the Policy Statement being delivered Wednesday. It will be important to see if the Fed announces additional tapering to its Bond buying program—and how Bonds and home loan rates react.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further—a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates rebounded late last week. With a potentially volatile week ahead, I’ll be watching the markets closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday April 25, 2014)

Japanese Candlestick Chart
The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Power-user Tips for LinkedIn

Chances are you know how powerful LinkedIn can be for networking, but like most everything in business there are secrets power-users know to help them stand out from the crowd. Keep these tips in mind as you use LinkedIn to start building stronger connections, even faster.

Be specific! When you ask someone to connect, change the default message, which reads: “I’d like to add you to my professional network on LinkedIn.” Instead, personalize your invitation to say something more inviting, or succinctly explain how you know the person or why you want to connect.

It’s not personal, it’s business. Because LinkedIn is a social media platform for professionals, keep your activity strictly business. If you get into heated discussions frequently, create controversial posts, or act overly casual in your comments, just remember that potential employers or customers could notice.

Give a little bit. The greatest networking principle is to always give first. Endorsing your connections is a quick and easy way to do just that. Not only will endorsing give your connections well-deserved virtual kudos, but it can also help them rank higher in search results—having you to thank for helping them score their next big deal or reach more people!

Timing is everything. Asking a favor immediately after making a connection is as much a faux pas in the virtual world as the real one. Make connections (and then nurture them) well before you need something from them.

Be sincere. Write only genuine recommendations, and write without expecting anything in return. If your connection returns the favor, good for you!

Click here for even more LinkedIn power-user tips and, as always, please feel free to pass these tips along to your team, clients and colleagues.

Economic Calendar for the Week of April 2 8- May 02

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. April 28
10:00
Pending Home Sales
Mar
NA
-0.8%
Moderate
Tue. April 29
09:00
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Feb
NA
13.2%
Moderate
Tue. April 29
10:30
Consumer Confidence
Apr
83.0
82.3
Moderate
Wed. April 30
08:15
ADP National Employment Report
Apr
NA
191K
HIGH
Wed. April 30
08:30
Employment Cost Index (ECI)
Q1
NA
0.5%
HIGH
Wed. April 30
08:30
GDP Chain Deflator
Q1
NA
1.6%
HIGH
Wed. April 30
08:30
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q1
NA
2.6%
HIGH
Wed. April 30
09:45
Chicago PMI
Apr
55.4
55.9
HIGH
Wed. April 30
02:00
FOMC Meeting
Apr
NA
0.25%
HIGH
Thu. May 01
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
YOY
NA
1.1%
HIGH
Thu. May 01
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Mar
NA
0.1%
HIGH
Thu. May 01
08:30
Personal Spending
Mar
0.6%
0.3%
Moderate
Thu. May 01
08:30
Personal Income
Mar
0.5%
0.3%
Moderate
Thu. May 01
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
4/26
NA
329K
Moderate
Thu. May 01
10:00
ISM Index
Apr
54.3
53.7
HIGH
Fri. May 02
08:30
Non-farm Payrolls
Apr
225K
192K
HIGH
Fri. May 02
08:30
Unemployment Rate
Apr
6.6%
6.7%
HIGH
Fri. May 02
08:30
Average Work Week
Apr
NA
34.5
HIGH
Fri. May 02
08:30
Hourly Earnings
Apr
NA
0.0%
Low

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