MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG Weekly / Vantage Production.blueForecast for the Week

The economic calendar is packed this week with key housing, inflation, manufacturing and economic growth data.

  • Housing news kicks off the week with July New Home Sales on Monday. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index follows on Tuesday, with Pending Home Sales for July being reported Thursday.
  • We’ll get a sense of how consumers are feeling with Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and the Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.
  • Look for Durable Goods Orders (i.e. orders for items that last for an extended period of time) on Tuesday.
  • Important news is ahead Thursday with the second reading of second quarter Gross Domestic Product.
  • Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will also be reported on Thursday. Claims continue to hover near the 300,000 mark.
  • Friday wraps up the week with Personal Income, Personal Spending and Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation. Regional manufacturing news via the Chicago PMI will also be reported.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further—a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds improved in the latter part of the week despite the positive housing data. Home loan rates remain near some of their best levels of the year and I’ll continue to monitor them closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday August 22, 2014)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

6 Steps for Hiring an Intern

Hiring an intern is a win-win. The intern gains valuable skills and experience. You gain extra help on a temporary basis. Follow these six steps to hire an intern:

  1. Create a clear, meaningful job description. Do you need someone to focus on a special project or a social media coordinator to expand your social media outreach? Include the time commitment (usually up to 20 hours per week) and preferred work hours. Finally, outline the compensation (e.g., hourly wage or stipend).
  2. Recruit candidates. Turn to social media, your networks, and local colleges and universities. Provide the job description for reference.
  3. Prepare a workspace. Your intern will need a computer and a comfortable space. A phone may be necessary if the intern is calling contacts on your behalf.
  4. Plan for mentoring and supervision. Your intern will be learning everything from job responsibilities, to appropriate dress code, to performance expectations, and office protocol. Plan for guidance every step of the way.
  5. Give specific feedback. Concrete praise encourages a repeat performance. Concrete constructive feedback allows for corrective action. If you work with a college, you may have additional requirements of reporting to an internship coordinator or having a site visit.
  6. Offer to be a reference. Internships aren’t expected to lead directly to a job with the host company. Offer to be a reference and speak about your interns’ job responsibilities and strengths with their prospective employers.

As always, please feel free to pass these tips along to your team, colleagues and clients.

Sources: Forbes.com, inc.com, internprofits.com, sba.gov

Economic Calendar for the Week of August 25 – August 29

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. August 25
10:00
New Home Sales
Jul
NA
406K
Moderate
Tue. August 26
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Jul
NA
1.7%
Moderate
Tue. August 26
09:00
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Jun
NA
9.3%
Moderate
Tue. August 26
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Aug
NA
90.9
Moderate
Thu. August 28
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
8/23
NA
298K
Moderate
Thu. August 28
08:30
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q2
NA
4.0%
Moderate
Thu. August 28
08:30
GDP Chain Deflator
Q2
NA
-2.0%
Moderate
Thu. August 28
10:00
Pending Home Sales
Jul
NA
-1.1%
Moderate
Fri. August 29
08:30
Personal Income
Jul
NA
0.4%
Moderate
Fri. August 29
08:30
Personal Spending
Jul
NA
0.4%
Moderate
Fri. August 29
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Jul
NA
0.1%
HIGH
Fri. August 29
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
YOY
NA
1.5%
HIGH
Fri. August 29
09:45
Chicago PMI
Aug
NA
52.6
Moderate
Fri. August 29
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Aug
NA
79.2
Moderate

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