MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG Weekly / Vantage Production.blueForecast for the Week

A full economic calendar is in store, with readings on housing, jobs, manufacturing, inflation, consumer spending and more.

  • Economic data kicks off on Monday with Personal Income, Personal Spending and Personal Consumption Expenditures (the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation).
  • In housing news, Pending Home Sales for August will be released on Monday. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index follows on Tuesday.
  • Also on Tuesday, Consumer Confidence for September will be released.
  • Look for manufacturing data on Tuesday via the Chicago PMI, followed by the ISM Index on Wednesday. The ISM Services Index, a national non-manufacturing index, will be released Friday.
  • As usual, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday.
  • And last but certainly not least, Friday brings the September Jobs Report, which includes Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further—a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates improved in recent days, due in part to uncertainty overseas. I’ll continue to monitor them closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday September 26, 2014)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Insurance Against Air-Travel Snafus
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The company tracks your flight through a real-time monitoring system and instantly wires money to your bank account if your flight triggers a claim. Missing a connection because of a flight delay will net you $500; waiting longer than 12 hours for checked luggage, $500; sitting on the tarmac for longer than two hours, $1,000; and lost luggage, $1,000. Luggage claims require a photo of a baggage claim ticket. Otherwise, payouts are instant and cumulative. A long tarmac delay that leads to a missed connection? That’s $1,500.

Some credit cards provide limited travel insurance at no cost. And AirCare doesn’t cover cancellations or medical emergencies, so it won’t replace standard travel insurance.

Before you buy: A recent monthly tally by the Department of Transportation shows that tarmac delays of more than two hours occurred in fewer than 1% of flights; 80% of flights took off on time.

By Kathryn Moody, Kiplinger.com

Reprinted with permission. All Contents ©2014 | The Kiplinger Washington Editors. Kiplinger.com

Economic Calendar for the Week of September 29 – October 3

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. September 29
08:30
Personal Income
Aug
NA
0.2%
Moderate
Mon. September 29
08:30
Personal Spending
Aug
NA
-0.1%
Moderate
Mon. September 29
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Aug
NA
0.1%
HIGH
Mon. September 29
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
YOY
NA
1.5%
HIGH
Mon. September 29
10:00
Pending Home Sales
Aug
NA
3.3%
Moderate
Tue. September 30
09:00
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Jul
NA
8.1%
Moderate
Tue. September 30
09:45
Chicago PMI
Sep
NA
64.3
HIGH
Tue. September 30
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Sep
NA
92.4
Moderate
Wed. October 01
10:00
ISM Index
Sep
NA
59.0
HIGH
Thu. October 02
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
9/27
NA
293K
Moderate
Fri. October 03
08:30
Non-farm Payrolls
Sep
NA
142K
HIGH
Fri. October 03
08:30
Unemployment Rate
Sep
NA
6.1%
HIGH
Fri. October 03
08:30
Average Work Week
Sep
NA
34.5
HIGH
Fri. October 03
08:30
Hourly Earnings
Sep
NA
0.2%
HIGH
Fri. October 03
10:00
ISM Services Index
Sep
NA
59.6
Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

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