MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG Weekly / Vantage Production.blueForecast for the Week

Get ready for a full calendar this week with data on housing, inflation, consumer spending, consumer confidence and more.
  • Housing data is plentiful with the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and New Home Sales on Tuesday, followed by Pending Home Sales on Thursday.
  • Consumer Confidence will be released on Tuesday as well, while the Consumer Sentiment Index follows on Friday.
  • Durable Goods Orders will be delivered on Wednesday.
  • Thursday brings the closely watched Gross Domestic Product numbers along with the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims.
  • Friday ends with the inflation reading Personal Consumption Expenditures along with Personal Income and Personal Spending.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further—a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds have been on a slight seesaw pattern since late July as investors have reacted to both domestic and global economic news. Despite this, home loan rates remain near historic lows.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday August 21, 2015)

Japanese Candlestick Chart
The Mortgage Market Guide View…
3 Tips for Giving Tough Feedback
Monique Valcour, professor of management at the renowned EDHEC Business School, says the ability to give tough feedback is an essential skill for leaders and managers. Most people are uncomfortable giving negative feedback, and may try to sweeten it with “honey” in hopes of making it more palatable to the recipient. Valcour insists this is unnecessary when you apply these three tips for giving powerful, high-impact feedback:
  1. View feedback as a developmental opportunity, not a way to show people they’re wrong. Create conditions for recipients to absorb, reflect and learn by addressing them in private rather than in front of peers. Keep your tone firm and professional, and avoid shouting.
  2. Enter the conversation with a positive attitude, as people often match the tone of the person approaching them. This will help prevent the feedback session ending in frustration, defensiveness or discomfort.
  3. Turn feedback into a problem-solving process by asking questions. Keep statements as brief as possible. Then ask things like: “What ideas do you have that might improve this situation?” “What are you taking away from this conversation?” “What steps will you take, when, and how will I know you’re taking them?”

These simple steps can mean the difference between making someone feel diminished and unwelcome, and creating an empowered contributor to your team or organization.

As always, feel free to pass these helpful tips along to your team, clients and colleagues.

Source: Harvard Business Review

Economic Calendar for the Week of August 24 – August 28

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Tue. August 25
09:00
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Jun
NA
4.9%
Moderate
Tue. August 25
10:00
New Home Sales
Jul
NA
482K
Moderate
Tue. August 25
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Aug
NA
90.9
Moderate
Wed. August 26
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Jul
NA
3.4%
Moderate
Thu. August 27
08:30
GDP Chain Deflator
Q2
NA
2.0%
Moderate
Thu. August 27
08:30
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q2
NA
2.3%
Moderate
Thu. August 27
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
8/22
NA
277K
Moderate
Thu. August 27
10:00
Pending Home Sales
Jul
NA
-1.8%
Moderate
Fri. August 28
08:30
Personal Income
Jul
NA
0.4%
Moderate
Fri. August 28
08:30
Personal Spending
Jul
NA
0.2%
Moderate
Fri. August 28
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Jul
NA
0.1%
HIGH
Fri. August 28
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
YOY
NA
1.3%
HIGH
Fri. August 28
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Aug
NA
92.9
Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose. The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

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