MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG Weekly / Vantage Production.blueForecast for the Week

Investors and the Federal Reserve will be looking to see if job creation lifts or drags the 180,000 new jobs per month average in 2016. We’ll know for sure Friday.

  • National manufacturing data from the ISM Index will be released on Monday followed by the ISM Services Index on Wednesday.
  • Employment data starts with the Wednesday release of the ADP National Employment Report, followed by weekly Initial Jobless Claims Thursday.
  • The September Jobs Report releases Friday and includes Non-farm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate and Hourly Earnings.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds remain near their best levels of the year. Home loan rates continue to hover close to historic lows.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday September 30, 2016)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Do Fitness Trackers Really Improve Your Health?
The devices aren’t terribly accurate, but that may be beside the point: getting you out and about.
By Kaitlin Pitsker, Kiplinger.com

Millions of Americans now wear fitness bands on their wrists to count their steps daily. Some employers are using fitness trackers to set goals — and rewards — for employees. Health and life insurers are offering premium discounts for wearing one. School systems are even using them to enable self-directed physical education programs.

How accurate are they? Fitness bands contain an accelerometer, which tracks movement in every direction to calculate the number of steps you’ve taken. But studies show that over the course of a day, many trackers have error rates of 10% to 20%. Tufts University’s Health & Nutrition Letter suggests you verify that your stride-length setting is correct by going to a track with the exact distance marked and counting your steps as you walk it. If you walk, say, 100 feet in 40 steps, divide 100 by 40. You have a stride length of about 2.5 feet.

Most fitness bands are on track when it comes to counting steps when you’re walking, running or climbing stairs — usually coming within 1% to 4% of your actual step count, says Alex Montoye, an assistant professor at Alma College who studies wearables. The devices are also good at not awarding credit for stationary activities with a lot of wrist movement, such as typing or shuffling papers.

But the trackers fall short when it comes to measuring your activity as you’re doing household chores, such as sweeping, washing dishes, cleaning or gardening. According to Montoye’s recent study at Ball State University, most fitness bands underestimate the amount of calories burned when doing tasks around the house by 27% to 34%. Also worth noting: The bands often fail to capture your steps when you’re pushing a grocery cart, lawn mower or baby stroller; if you want credit for those exertions, consider slipping the band into a pants or skirt pocket.

Before you choose a fitness tracker, consider the features you’re looking for. A simple step counter, such as the Fitbit Zip or Jawbone UP Move, will run you $50 to $60. At the high end, the Fitbit Surge ($250) will not only count steps but also track your heart rate and sleep patterns — plus it offers GPS tracking and has a 1.25-inch screen to alert you to text messages sent to your smartphone. If you want to measure your heart rate and monitor your sleep but don’t need the other advanced features, consider the Fitbit Charge HR ($150) and the Jawbone UP3 ($130). (The Apple Watch has a built-in workout application to track your activity, and you can load a sleep-monitoring app from the iTunes store.)

Virtual coaching. Despite missteps when it comes to recording your activity, wearable trackers can be useful for improving your daily workout. Because the majority of adults’ exercise comes in the form of walking, says Montoye, your step count should provide a good ballpark of your daily activity.

And for many fitness-band wearers, the precise number of steps logged matters less than the motivation to get up and move around. The bands can fuel competition to outwalk friends and encourage couples to take an evening walk. According to Harvard Women’s Health Watch, numerous studies have focused on activity levels of women older than 50. Those who wore fitness trackers significantly increased the time they spent doing moderate to vigorous activity.

Economic Calendar for the Week of October 03 – October 07

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. October 03
10:00
ISM Index
Sep
NA
49.4
HIGH
Wed. October 05
08:15
ADP National Employment Report
Sep
NA
177K
HIGH
Wed. October 05
10:00
ISM Services Index
Sep
NA
51.4
Moderate
Thu. October 06
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
10/1
NA
1NA
Moderate
Fri. October 07
08:30
Unemployment Rate
Sep
NA
4.9%
HIGH
Fri. October 07
08:30
Hourly Earnings
Sep
NA
0.1%
HIGH
Fri. October 07
08:30
Average Work Week
Sep
NA
34.3
HIGH
Fri. October 07
08:30
Non-farm Payrolls
Sep
NA
151K
HIGH

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose. The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

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