MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG Weekly / Vantage Production.blueForecast for the Week

This action-packed week will revolve around two market-moving releases: the Fed’s monetary policy statement and the Jobs Report for October.
  • Economic data kicks off Monday with the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures. Personal Income and Personal Spending also will be released Monday.
  • Manufacturing data will come with Monday’s Chicago PMI and the national ISM Index on Tuesday.
  • Look for the first labor market news of the week via the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday, followed by weekly Initial Jobless Claims Thursday.
  • While not an economic report, the Fed’s monetary policy statement will be released Wednesday after the close of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
  • Productivity and the ISM Services Index will be delivered on Thursday.
  • The monthly Jobs Report for October will be released on Friday, which includes Non-farm Payrolls, Hourly Earnings, Average Work Week and the Unemployment Rate.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds have been up and down recently, however home loan rates remain near historic lows.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday October 28, 2016)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

How to Overcome Travel Delays and Cancellations

Travel hiccups are unavoidable. Here’s how to navigate them.
By Ryan Ermey, Kiplinger.com

Everyone has a tale of travel gone wrong. The recent computer crash at Delta was just the latest in a long line of airline mishaps that have caused widespread disruptions. A hiccup here and there won’t ruin your trip. But if you encounter a full-on snafu on your next flight, knowing your rights and planning ahead can save you from becoming another horror-story victim.

Most airline delays and cancellations are caused by technological failures, such as the Delta outage, or weather-related problems. In either case, virtually all airlines promise to book you a seat on the next available flight at no additional charge. (A handful of airlines, including Delta and United, may book you on another airline at their discretion.) For individual cases, that might be the end of your troubles. But in the case of a massive disruption, delays can derail your trip for days. If you decide not to proceed with your trip, you can apply for a full refund, even if you hold a nonrefundable ticket. But if packing it in and going home isn’t an option, you’ll have to proceed to Plan B.

You’ll generally fare better if the delay or cancellation is the fault of the airline. For instance, in a long delay (typically four hours) due to equipment malfunction, Alaska, Hawaiian, United and WestJet provide meal vouchers. And those four as well as American, Delta and Sun Country will provide overnight accommodations in the case of a delay that continues after 10 p.m. until 6 a.m. If the airline can’t get you into one of its affiliate hotels, you’ll get a voucher worth the price of a stay to spend toward a future flight. Other airlines might be willing to provide assistance if you explain your situation, but they are not required to do so.

If you’re delayed by weather or some unforeseen event, such as a workers’ strike, airlines will offer little assistance, and you may have to foot any delay-related bills yourself. It pays to act quickly. The TripIt Pro smartphone app for Apple and Android ($49 a year) will send you alerts about cancellations, delays or gate changes on the fly, sometimes even ahead of an airline announcement. The free FlightAware app (Apple, Android and Windows) will also let you keep tabs on your flight. If you wake up the day of your flight and the weather looks dicey, book a refundable hotel room near the airport.

Hedge Your Bets
Travel insurance can compensate you for the costs associated with a trip interruption. You can purchase some policies up until the day of your trip, but err on the side of buying early. If you buy after it’s apparent that bad weather will ground your flight, for instance, you may forfeit coverage. George Hobica, founder of Airfarewatchdog.com, recommends that you reject the airline’s coverage and compare policies at third-party sites such as Squaremouth.com and TravelInsurance.com. The insurance will likely pay expenses such as meals and hotel stays during a delay, and policies will often cover nonrefundable costs for unused hotel rooms or tour packages at your destination. But read the fine print, says Hobica: “The insurer’s definition of a delay may be very different from yours.”

Your credit card company may also be able to help. If you’re delayed by more than six hours, or if you need to stay overnight, the Chase Sapphire Reserve card will reimburse you for up to $500 per day in necessary expenses, such as hotel rooms and meals. The Chase Sapphire Preferred, American Express Platinum and Citi Prestige cards offer similar coverage.

Economic Calendar for the Week of October 31 – November 04

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. October 31
08:30
Personal Income
Sep
NA
0.2%
Moderate
Mon. October 31
08:30
Personal Spending
Sep
NA
0.0%
Moderate
Mon. October 31
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Sep
NA
0.2%
HIGH
Mon. October 31
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
YOY
NA
1.7%
HIGH
Mon. October 31
09:45
Chicago PMI
Oct
NA
54.2
HIGH
Tue. November 01
10:00
ISM Index
Oct
NA
51.5
HIGH
Wed. November 02
02:00
FOMC Meeting
Nov
NA
0.375%
HIGH
Wed. November 02
08:15
ADP National Employment Report
Oct
NA
154K
HIGH
Thu. November 03
08:00
Jobless Claims (Initial)
10/29
NA
NA
Moderate
Thu. November 03
08:30
Productivity
Q3
NA
-0.6%
Moderate
Thu. November 03
10:00
ISM Services Index
Oct
NA
57.1
Moderate
Fri. November 04
08:30
Non-farm Payrolls
Oct
NA
156K
HIGH
Fri. November 04
08:30
Unemployment Rate
Oct
NA
5.0%
HIGH
Fri. November 04
08:30
Average Work Week
Oct
NA
34.4
HIGH
Fri. November 04
08:30
Hourly Earnings
Oct
NA
0.2%
HIGH

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose. The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

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