MMG WEEKLY – WHAT ARE THEY SAYING THIS WEEK?

MMG Weekly / Vantage Production.blueForecast for the Week

The week is loaded with headline reports. Which ones will land above the fold and move markets?
  • Pending Home Sales will be delivered Monday.
  • Manufacturing data releases start on Monday with Durable Goods Orders. The Chicago PMI will be released Tuesday, followed by the ISM Index Wednesday.
  • The second estimate for first quarter Gross Domestic Product will be watched by investors as well as the Fed when it is announced on Tuesday.
  • Consumer data is plentiful with the release of Consumer Confidence Tuesday, as well as Personal Income, Personal Spending and the inflation-reading Personal Consumption Expenditures Wednesday.
  • The Fed’s Beige Book is due out Wednesday.
  • As usual, weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday.
  • The non-manufacturing ISM Services Index will be released Friday.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds prices have seesawed in recent weeks and rebounded. Despite recent volatility, home loan rates are still in attractive territory.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday, February 24, 2017)

Japanese Candlestick Chart

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

How to Protect Your Rewards Points and Miles From Theft
Monitor your loyalty rewards as you would your bank accounts.
By Lisa Gerstner, Kiplinger.com

Kiplinger’s interviewed Barry Kirk, who creates and consults on consumer loyalty programs for Maritz Motivation Solutions. Read excerpts from their interview below.

Yahoo recently disclosed a 2013 breach that exposed personal information from more than 1 billion user accounts. Are loyalty rewards accounts vulnerable to hacking, too?

Consumers tend not to see loyalty accounts as housing sensitive data. But points and miles are currencies that have a real dollar value, with $48 billion worth at stake among U.S. consumers, according to an industry study conducted a few years ago. That number is probably significantly higher now. Criminals recognize that the store of value sitting in unprotected loyalty programs is ripe for the picking.

How do crooks steal points and miles?

Criminals attempt to hack loyalty accounts daily. Sometimes they focus on a single account to, say, exchange rewards for airline tickets, usually redeeming them outside the U.S. Other attacks target hundreds or thousands of accounts at once. In such large-scale compromises, hackers often redeem points for gift cards, which they sell on the black market. We’ve also seen hackers use credit card accounts not only to make fraudulent purchases but also to rack up points, which they then move out of the account. Loyalty managers have kept a low profile with regard to breaches that have occurred, but it’s just a matter of time until there’s a well-publicized breach of a large program — most likely in airline or hotel rewards because members accrue significant value in those programs.

How can customers protect their loyalty rewards?

Treat your loyalty accounts, especially the ones that hold the most value, as you would your bank accounts. Set aside time once a month, at a minimum, to review activity in your loyalty accounts. If you’re earning rewards daily with a program, check it multiple times a week. Don’t use the same passwords for your loyalty programs as you do for your e-mail, bank or credit card accounts. If hackers breach one account, they have a skeleton key to the sensitive data in other accounts. Take advantage of a password manager — software that generates, stores and encrypts passwords.

What should you do if points or miles have been stolen?

Immediately contact the loyalty program’s call center. By and large, programs are generous in refunding points or miles because it’s usually not a fuzzy situation. For instance, if points in the account of a customer who lives in Chicago were redeemed and sent someplace in Russia, it’s pretty clear that it wasn’t the owner accessing the account.

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 27 – March 03

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. February 27
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Jan
NA
-0.4%
Moderate
Mon. February 27
10:00
Pending Home Sales
Jan
NA
1.6%
Moderate
Tue. February 28
08:30
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q4
NA
1.9%
HIGH
Tue. February 28
08:30
GDP Chain Deflator
Q4
NA
2.1%
HIGH
Tue. February 28
09:45
Chicago PMI
Feb
NA
50.3
HIGH
Tue. February 28
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Feb
NA
111.8
Moderate
Wed. March 01
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
YOY
NA
1.7%
HIGH
Wed. March 01
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Jan
NA
0.1%
HIGH
Wed. March 01
08:30
Personal Spending
Jan
NA
0.5%
Moderate
Wed. March 01
08:30
Personal Income
Jan
NA
0.3%
Moderate
Wed. March 01
10:00
ISM Index
Feb
NA
56.0
HIGH
Wed. March 01
02:00
Beige Book
Mar
NA
NA
Moderate
Thu. March 02
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
2/25
NA
NA
Moderate
Fri. March 03
10:00
ISM Services Index
Feb
NA
56.5
Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose. The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

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